The secret Downing Street memo
SECRET AND STRICTLY PERSONAL – UK EYES ONLY
DAVID MANNING
From: Matthew Rycroft
Date: 23 July 2002
S 195 /02
cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell
IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER’S MEETING, 23 JULY
Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.
This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.
John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam’s regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August.
The two broad US options were:
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).
(b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were:
(i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons.
(ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition.
(iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun “spikes of activity” to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.
For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN.
John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
Conclusions:
(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
(b) The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
(c) CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.
He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.
(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)
MATTHEW RYCROFT
(Rycroft was a Downing Street foreign policy aide)
Cessna Analysis
|| 5/13/2005 || 11:18 am || 1 Comment Rendered || ||
Via Seattle Times
Let’s use World Wind to visually see how close this plane got, and more importantly assess what a lack of security this really shows…..
Using a screen shot from World Wind and a picture of a Cessna, I came up with this rudimentary analysis of where the plane was and the possible debris area if the plane was to have been shot down by the armaments on top of the White House (click on the image to view the full size image).
Of course this is a very rough spatial analysis of the potential debris area, but the proximity to the White House the plane made it to is dumbfounding. The article in reference above stated:
All I can says is: OUTDATED MAPS MY ASS! You can see the Washington Monument from the air all the way out in Rockville, MD (I’ve seen it from the 10th floor of a high-rise at the Metro stop) and it is well known in the aviation community that there is a restricted fly space over DC. The pilots didn’t need maps to know that they were in restricted fly-space, they could see the Washington Monument quite easily and continued to fly toward DC.
The graphic above, nor most of the media accounts fully explains the direction the pilots were going- were they heading due south or were they heading southeast. If they were heading due south, they would have also crossed into the no-so-restricted airspace of DCA and might have gotten very close to some very large planes taking off or landing (I do not know the direction of the winds on that day). If they were heading southeast, then the analysis above would most likely be somewhat correct. (Do you work in that area?)
On top of the lame excuse for outdated maps, why didn’t they respond to any calls from the FAA? Once they entered restricted airspace, I imagine there would have been some attempts at notification. So why didn’t they respond? This is standard protocol for any pilot.
If you ask me, if this is all very very fishy. They could have dumped a canister of aerosolized anthrax over the DC area and then chucked the canister out the window to get rid of any evidence. I could easily make another map showing the theoretical diffusion of such a situation. What if that plane was holding a few pounds of radiological material onboard? If that plane was shot down, downtown Washington, DC would be a radioactive mess, a mess that could have been prevented.
I bet this was simply a test on the emergency response system in the DC area. The scare during Reagan’s funeral seems wholly legitimate compared to this event. This one seems too perfect. Have a small, harmless plane cross over into the restricted airspace of DC, gauge how fast the emergency response apparatus acts, and then see how it can be tinkered to not allow such an event to take place again. The whole “we were lost” line is such utter bullshit, and I think this “test” seems like a much better explanation.
update via WJLA:
If my theory is incorrect, he must be one hell of a stupid pilot that shouldn’t hold the yoke of a plane again. His teacher too.
===/=== 3:30pm===\===
After looking at the Washington Post map of the flight path, I’ve found my analysis to be completely incorrect. The plane came from the northeast and flew over the U.S. Naval Observatory on its flight out of DC, thus my graphic above is severely inaccurate. Oh well, it was fun to make!